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Supply Investment Needed with Resilient Global Oil Demand: Energy Aspects

OIL

Resilient global oil demand is still seen at around 100mb/d in 2050 even after a peak in the early 2030s according to Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.

  • Deferred oil prices are too low and must rise to help balance the markets. Their long-term view is for Brent to average over $80/bbl between now and 2040.
  • The industry needs to do more to raise supply. Current upstream investment of $450b and a shifting focus to debt returns and decarbonization is only sufficient to manage a decline in oil supply.
  • Spending is at 2007-2008 levels when liquids production was about 15% below current rates and gas production about 30% below
  • Rising production costs and a value-driven business model of drillers have dampen prospects for US shale production growth. US oil output growth of 300kb/d is expected in 2024 down from 600kb/d in 2023.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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