Supply Pressures Ease as Market Considers Possible Freeport LNG Delay

Spot LNG prices in northeast Asia are supported by concern over the delayed restart to the Freeport LNG export terminal in US while the mild start to winter has eased pressure on global supplies.

• The delayed restart to Freeport may put more pressure than expected on global supplies of LNG, especially if significant cold arrives in the Northern Hemisphere. The first cooler spell for Europe this weekend supported European gas prices earlier this week, but prices have retreated as the cold for much of Europe looks likely to be short lived.
• The US LNG netback to Europe is estimated at 28.32$/mmbtu for Jan and to Asia is estimated at 17.44$/mmbtu.
• Congestion outside NW Europe LNG terminal has eased as some floating storage volumes have unloaded this week according to Bloomberg ship tracking data. Another 23 LNG cargoes are currently expected into terminals in NW Europe before the end of the month.
  • TTF DEC 22 down -3.5% at 108.57€/MWh
  • NBP DEC 22 down -2.2% at 262p/th
  • JKM Dec 22 down -3.9% at 26.32$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Dec 22 up 1.2$/mmbtu at -6.52$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas DEC 22 down -3% at 6.18$/mmbtu