Support For Government Drops But Opposition Struggling To Benefit

Two opinion polls taken in late February are pointing to a fall in primary support for the incumbent Labor government but the two-party preferred measure is still in their favour and PM Albanese remains the preferred PM. There is an important bi-election held on March 2 in Victoria with a federal election due before May 2025.

• The latest Newspoll from The Australian taken between February 19 and 23 saw support for Labor drop 1pp to 33% and the coalition steady on 36%, both in line with their May 2022 election results. Two-party preferred remained on 52% vs 48% though, where it has been since mid-December. The Greens were steady on 12% while support for independents rose 2pp to 13%.
• Albanese is preferred PM on 47% compared with opposition leader Dutton’s 35% but both have negative approval ratings.
• 55% support small modular nuclear reactors including 51% of Labor voters, despite the PM’s commitment not to overturn the nuclear ban.
• The Sydney Morning Herald/The Age’s Resolve Political Monitor was in line with Newspoll showing the Coalition ahead on the primary vote with 37% compared with Labor’s 34%. Support for the Coalition rose 3pp since the last poll in December while Labor fell 1pp. The Greens fell 1pp to 11% while independents were steady on 9%. The survey was taken between February 21 and 24.
• Albanese remained preferred PM in the Resolve poll too at 39% vs 32%, which is the smallest gap since the last election. There was also 52% support for the revamped tax cut plan.