Support For Scottish Independence Hits Record High In YouGov Poll

Public support for Scottish independence has hit a record high according to pollster YouGov, with 53% of respondents (excluding don't knows) stating they support the idea of Scotland leaving the United Kingdom.

• This leaves 47% of respondents saying they want to see Scotland remain as part of the UK. The lead for 'Yes' to independence is up to 6% from 2% in January.
• The concern for Westminster will be that the poll also shows the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) with a substantial lead in both the constituency and regional party-list votes heading into next May's Scottish Parliament elections. The SNP gains 57% and 47% support in the constituency and regional list vote polling respectively, compared to 20% and 21% for the pro-Union Conservatives. If these results were mirrored in the 2021 election it would likely provide the SNP with an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament.
• In that scenario it would be increasingly difficult for the UK gov't in Westminster to deny a second Scottish independence referendum.
• One of the largest issues for pro-Union parties is PM Boris Johnson, who according to polling is singularly unpopular in Scotland. The YouGov poll shows just 20% of respondents believe Johnson is doing well in his job compared to 74% who say he is doing badly. This compares to 72% of respondents saying SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon doing well to just 22% doing badly.
• Scotland accounts for 8% of the UK population, 32% of its land mass, and 8% of its overall GVA.

Source: YouGov. Latest data from 6-10 Aug, 1,142 respondents.