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Surging Payrolls Close Pre-Pandemic Gap

US DATA
  • With payrolls surprisingly surging 528k in July (cons 250k) and with small upward revisions, payrolls have closed the gap with pre-pandemic levels in what's been a historically fast recovery compared to prior recessions - first chart.
  • Monthly payrolls gains were led by the same three sectors as June: professional & business services, health & social assistance and a strong ramp up in food & drinking places, typically a discretionary spending-heavy component. Surprising resilience in interest-rate sensitive construction.


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  • With payrolls surprisingly surging 528k in July (cons 250k) and with small upward revisions, payrolls have closed the gap with pre-pandemic levels in what's been a historically fast recovery compared to prior recessions - first chart.
  • Monthly payrolls gains were led by the same three sectors as June: professional & business services, health & social assistance and a strong ramp up in food & drinking places, typically a discretionary spending-heavy component. Surprising resilience in interest-rate sensitive construction.