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Surprise Slump In New Home Sales Drives Relative Supply Sharply Higher

US DATA
  • New home sales were far lower than expected in November at a seasonally adjusted 590k (cons 690k).
  • To give a sense of just how volatile recent months have been: -12.2% M/M in Nov, -4% in Oct, +7% in Sep, -10.2% in Aug and +6.6% in Jul.
  • The latest decline was driven by a very large 21% decline in the south, by far the largest of the main four regions.
  • Having been fluctuating around pre-pandemic levels, the two consecutive monthly declines for overall new home sales leaves them almost 15% below 2019 levels.
  • The slide in sales drove a particularly sharp increase in the months of supply, from 7.9 to 9.2 for its highest since late 2022 levels and before that last seen in 2009.
  • This far looser supply backdrop compared to existing is putting downward pressure on prices: whilst volatile, median prices of new home sales were -6% Y/Y vs +4% Y/Y for existing in November.

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