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Surprisingly Strong Productivity Growth Further Dampens Unit Labor Costs

US DATA
  • Building on dovish implications from yesterday’s softer than expected employment cost growth, labor productivity was also stronger than expected as it increased 2.3% annualized (cons 1.8) in preliminary Q2 data.
  • Revisions to productivity were marginal, up to 0.4% annualized in Q1 vs the initial 0.2%, in a quarter that still represented payback after a particularly strong 4.0% in 2H23.
  • In broader trend terms, productivity growth remained robust at 2.7% Y/Y.
  • The stronger than expected productivity growth saw unit labor costs come in more tepid than expected in Q2 at just 0.9% annualized (cons 1.7%).
  • The quarterly ULC trend has been mixed of late, with 3.8% in Q1 after -2.8% in Q4, but year-ago growth of 0.5% Y/Y is clearly beneficial for cooling wage-related components of inflation.
  • Recall Powell at yesterday’s FOMC press conference: Today's ECI reading was softer than expected. That's a good reading. It shows that wage increases are still at a strong level, but that that level continues to come down to more sustainable levels over time. That's exactly the pattern that we want to be seeing.”

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