April 24, 2024 07:14 GMT
/SWAPS: Commerzbank Still Prefer Spread Tighteners
BUNDS
Commerzbank write “the push higher in swap spreads seems to have passed the turning point already.”
- “Schatz invoice spreads are trading notably tighter again, decoupling from the relevant risk-off measures following the very close correlation until last week's peak.”
- “Implied vols for remain stuck at the highs, as does 5y5y € ILS or other proxies for the inflation risk premium which are instrumental for ECB-expectations.”
- “Ultra-long spreads had already been trading heavy beforehand.”
- “In sum, this once more confirms our central view that collateral abundance changes the game for ASW-spreads.”
- “Flight-to-quality certainly remains a widener, but with specialness dormant the other crucial ingredient for a self-reinforcing ASW/collateral spiral and hence sustained widening is missing - turning such episodes into good selling opportunities.”
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