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Swedbank: Expects SEK100-150bln extension to QE

RIKSBANK
  • Swedbank expects the Riksbank to "increase the framework for its asset buying program by SEK100-150 billion and extend the purchases through the second half of 2021. Also, we expect the Riksbank to announce it will fully reinvest its maturing bonds in coming years."
  • "The repo rate is likely to stay at 0% and the repo rate path kept unchanged."
  • Swedbank expects "the breakdown between asset classes should stay the same for the most part. The emphasis will still be on covered bonds, but the risk picture is such that there could be slightly more government bonds relative to covered and municipal bonds against the backdrop of a thinner supply and the strength of the housing market."
  • Swedbank doesn't "expect the central bank to specify the expanded asset purchases for the second half of 2021 at this meeting, though it probably will detail those in the first half-year."
  • "As long as the coronavirus is uncontrolled, we don't expect the Riksbank to stress its interest rate weapon but instead continue to rely on balance sheet measures. The rhetoric could change next year if the economy normalizes and inflation and inflation expectations are a big concern for the Riksbank"
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