SWEDEN
Swedish consumer confidence reached its highest level since December 2021 in the September Economic Tendency survey, at 99.5 (the 12th consecutive monthly rise and above the 97.0 consensus). This brings sentiment back toward “normal” levels.
- Combined with a recovery in real wages, improving consumer confidence is a key part of the Riksbank’s forecast for a consumption-driven economic recovery from next year.
- However, Governor Thedeen cautioned at yesterday’s press conference that such a recovery is not guaranteed, given changing consumer behaviour post-pandemic.
- The overall Economic Tendency Indicator rose a touch to 94.9 (vs 94.6 prior), but was below the 95.5 forecast. All industry sub-components other than manufacturing and construction saw increases.
- Manufacturing respondents noted weaker orders on the domestic and export market, the latter potentially a function of ongoing Eurozone economic weakness.
- Expected prices were unchanged relative to August, though this masked small upticks in manufacturing/retail expected prices and a downtick in services.
- Overall, the data appears supportive of the Riksbank’s base case of 25bp cuts at the next two meetings this year.
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