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SWEDEN: Continued Narrowing Of Goods Trade Surplus In October

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The Swedish goods surplus continued to gradually narrow in October, falling to SEK2.5bln on a seasonally adjusted basis (vs SEK2.9bln in September and an October 2023 high of SEK8.0bln). The value of both imports and exports have fallen over the past year, which is likely a function of weak demand domestically (in the case of imports) and amongst trading partners (in the case of exports).

  • The prospect of tariffs following the US election is naturally a concern for a small-open economy such as Sweden, particularly with Sweden running a structural goods surplus with the US. The Riksbank has highlighted the need to analyse trade policies and their effects carefully in the quarters ahead, though stress that little detail is available at present.
  • Goods trade is an important component of overall GDP growth (the goods current account surplus was 6.2% of GDP in Q2, but the services current account deficit was 1.1% of GDP).
  • In Q3, Statistics Sweden notes that total goods export volumes fell 9% Q/Q in Q3, while import volumes fell 5% Q/Q. This suggests net trade could drag on Q3 GDP, for which the final reading is released tomorrow morning (the flash was -0.1% Q/Q).

 

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The Swedish goods surplus continued to gradually narrow in October, falling to SEK2.5bln on a seasonally adjusted basis (vs SEK2.9bln in September and an October 2023 high of SEK8.0bln). The value of both imports and exports have fallen over the past year, which is likely a function of weak demand domestically (in the case of imports) and amongst trading partners (in the case of exports).

  • The prospect of tariffs following the US election is naturally a concern for a small-open economy such as Sweden, particularly with Sweden running a structural goods surplus with the US. The Riksbank has highlighted the need to analyse trade policies and their effects carefully in the quarters ahead, though stress that little detail is available at present.
  • Goods trade is an important component of overall GDP growth (the goods current account surplus was 6.2% of GDP in Q2, but the services current account deficit was 1.1% of GDP).
  • In Q3, Statistics Sweden notes that total goods export volumes fell 9% Q/Q in Q3, while import volumes fell 5% Q/Q. This suggests net trade could drag on Q3 GDP, for which the final reading is released tomorrow morning (the flash was -0.1% Q/Q).