SWEDEN
The Swedish final September inflation reading confirmed flash estimates, with CPIF ex-energy at 2.01% Y/Y (above the Riksbank’s September MPR projection of 1.85%) and 0.35% M/M. Trends in inflation momentum and inflation breadth underscore the Riksbank’s view that upside inflation risks have diminished, and underlying inflation is broadly consistent with the 2% target.
- MNI’s calculations indicate that CPIF ex-energy inflation rose 0.24% M/M on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this led to an uptick in 1/3/6-month annualised SA inflation, overall inflation momentum on a 3m/3m SA annualised basis was steady at 2.3%
- Meanwhile, the share of sub-components with an inflation rate below 4% rose to 68% (vs 65% prior), its highest since December 2021. The share of components with rates below 2% ticked up to 47% (vs 48% prior).
- Statistics Sweden notes that food prices rose more than usual in September. This appears to be a key driver of the upside surprise vs Riksbank, with food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation at 0.6% M/M (vs -0.4% prior). Food prices contributed 0.05pp to monthly headline CPI.
- Clothing and footwear prices rose 3.0% M/M (vs 4.6% prior), contributing 0.12pp.
- Most major services categories disinflated on an annual basis. On a monthly basis: recreation and culture prices rose 1.1% M/M, contributing 0.14pp to monthly CPI, but this followed -2.0% M/M prior. Transport prices fell 2.2% M/M, pulling CPI down by 0.27pp.
- Electricity prices rose 2.0% M/M, adding 0.06pp, with fuel prices also 1.8% M/M higher in September.
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