SWEDEN
The Swedish LFS unemployment rate was two tenths below consensus in August at 8.3% (vs 8.6% prior). Taken alongside last week’s Public Employment Service data, we believe the pace of Swedish labour market weakening has reduced, but the overall state remains subdued. This is in line with the Riksbank’s view from the August policy decision.
- As such, the data still supports the Riksbank’s plans to cut rates two or three more times this year, including at next week’s meeting.
- The 3mma of the unemployment rate rose a touch to 8.37% (vs 8.33% prior) and is thus tracking a little below the Riksbank’s Q3 projection of 8.52% (from the June MPR).
- Employment growth was 0.1% M/M in August, and 0.4% on a 3m/3m basis (vs -0.1% prior). This helped the 3mma of the employment rate rise to 69.27%, tracking above the Riksbank’s June MPR forecast for Q3 of 68.84%.
- As such, the inactivity rate eased a little to 24.47% (vs 24.63% prior).
- Last week’s PES data saw a rise in the unemployment claims rate to 6.8% (vs 6.7% prior), while vacancies fell 34% Y/Y. This meant the vacancies to unemployment claims ratio eased to 0.26 (vs 0.27 prior), which highlights that the labour market is still weakening a little.
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