SWEDEN: May Data Releases Supportive Of Nascent Pickup In Activity

This morning’s Swedish data was supportive of a nascent pickup in economic activity.

• On a 3m/3m SWDA basis, May real retail sales rose 0.6%. This series has now had positive readings for 6 consecutive months.
• The recent trends in retail sentiment have been positive too, with June's Economic Tendency Indicator recovering to 98.6 from 92.6 in May (though it was 102.4 in April).
• Meanwhile, household lending showed the first signs of bottoming out, rising 0.7% in May (vs 0.5% prior).
• Finally, Swedish goods exports (in value terms) rose for a sixth consecutive month in May, with the goods trade balance rising to SEK11.9bln (vs SEK7.2bln prior). The trend-adjusted data provided a similar conclusion. The improvement in net trade (on an NSA basis) was driven by higher exports to non-EU member states, with the EU-state goods balance falling to -SEK19bln (vs -18bln prior).
• The Riksbank’s current nowcast for Q2 GDP is 0.0% Q/Q, though this will have been partially based on the often-revised monthly GDP indicator, which was weak in April.