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Sweden PMI Suggests Eurozone Manufacturing Downturn Will Deepen

EUROPE

Swedish PMI tends to be a useful leading indicator for manufacturing and trade activity in the broader Europe region. The overall PMI has been pointing to weakness in eurozone PMI figures, as confirmed by this morning's final figures.

  • Looking at the difference between the Swedish PMI New Orders and Inventories subindices (capturing a potential excess in built-up inventories versus incoming orders and thus a slowdown in actual activity ahead), the June Sweden PMI report out this morning points to severe contraction in eurozone manufacturing into the early autumn at least (see chart).
  • While this indicator appears to be stabilising at very contractionary levels, it hasn't shown signs of rebounding yet.


Source: Swedbank, Eurostat, BBG, MNI

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