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SWEDEN: Sep Flash Inflation - Not Enough To Shift Riksbank Thinking

SWEDEN
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Swedish flash September CPIF ex-energy inflation was 2.01% Y/Y (vs 2.16% prior), a little above the 1.9% consensus and the Riksbank’s 1.85% forecast in the September MPR. This was the first time the flash release was published, and as expected there are no details on the underlying drivers.

  • There isn’t enough of a surprise here to change the outlook for the Riksbank ahead of the November 7 meeting.
  • Taken at face value, the data supports the Riksbank’s base case of 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings.
  • However, August activity data (due later this week) and September labour market figures (due in the coming weeks) will be important in determining whether a 50bp cut is likely in November. Such a move is already expected by some analysts.
  • There are also scheduled speeches from Bunge (today) and Thedeen (Thursday), which may provide an insight into whether an ECB October cut can accelerate the Riksbank’s easing cycle.
  • Headline CPIF was 1.15% Y/Y (vs 1.1% cons, 1.04% Riksbank). The full September inflation data will be released next Tuesday (Oct 15). 

 

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Swedish flash September CPIF ex-energy inflation was 2.01% Y/Y (vs 2.16% prior), a little above the 1.9% consensus and the Riksbank’s 1.85% forecast in the September MPR. This was the first time the flash release was published, and as expected there are no details on the underlying drivers.

  • There isn’t enough of a surprise here to change the outlook for the Riksbank ahead of the November 7 meeting.
  • Taken at face value, the data supports the Riksbank’s base case of 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings.
  • However, August activity data (due later this week) and September labour market figures (due in the coming weeks) will be important in determining whether a 50bp cut is likely in November. Such a move is already expected by some analysts.
  • There are also scheduled speeches from Bunge (today) and Thedeen (Thursday), which may provide an insight into whether an ECB October cut can accelerate the Riksbank’s easing cycle.
  • Headline CPIF was 1.15% Y/Y (vs 1.1% cons, 1.04% Riksbank). The full September inflation data will be released next Tuesday (Oct 15).