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SWEDEN: Tomorrow’s Activity Data To Be Eyed For 50bp Rate Cut Potential

SWEDEN
  • Tomorrow’s Swedish data will be closely watched for signals of deteriorating economic conditions, seemingly a necessary condition for 50bp Riksbank rate cuts per Monday’s minutes. However, we think only a large downside surprise in both Q2 GDP and the Economic Tendency Indicator would be needed to start tempting the Executive Board away from 25bp cuts at each of the remaining meetings this year.
  • Consensus for tomorrow’s Q2 GDP print stands at -0.8% Q/Q, in line with last month’s flash indicator. However, we caution that the flash estimate can sometimes be revised quite heavily. For example, the flash Q1 ’24 estimate of -0.1% Q/Q was revised to 0.7% in the final release.
  • The August Economic Tendency Indicator, which provides a more forward-looking view than GDP, will as usual be eyed for an update on sentiment and expected prices/employment metrics across industries. 
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