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SWITZERLAND: CHF Remains on Front Foot Amid Carry Unwind Backdrop

SWITZERLAND
  • The narrowing of yield differentials in Japan and the US have been the primary driver of the sharp JPY rebound in recent weeks, exacerbated by the deterioration for global risk sentiment. While the JPY’s funding status and positioning have exacerbated this correction, the similarly low yielding Swiss Franc also continues to trade on the front foot, with EURCHF printing nine-year lows on Monday.
  • EURCHF traded as low as 0.9211 during yesterday’s severe risk aversion with notorious safe havens attracting strong early demand. While the pair had a solid bounce to around 0.9380, renewed weakness today saw the pair briefly slip back below 0.9300.
  • Yesterday’s low represented the weakest level since the removal of the floor back in January 2015. Short-term support remains scant until the reported lows from that day, shown on Bloomberg as 0.8517. Initial resistance is not seen until the June lows of 0.9478 and 0.9540, the 20-day EMA.
  • For USDCHF, the downside target for the move appears well defined at the December 2023 lows of 0.8333. Below here, the 76.4% retracement of the 2015-2016 range comes in at 0.8099 and could be a target should greenback weakness develop, and risk sentiment deteriorate further.

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