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Switzerland Macro Signal-June 2024: Gradual Growth Pickup

SWITZERLAND

We've just published our latest Switzerland Macro Signal - PDF here:

  • Economic Activity: Economic growth momentum appeared by most indicators to be moderate in Q1. Analysts generally see activity picking up to some extent in the coming quarters. Sectoral indicators point towards weak industrial and construction activity – sentiment in manufacturing has continued to broadly trend upwards recently, however.
  • Labour market: The Swiss labour market is undergoing some gradual softening after pronounced tightness in the post-pandemic period. This softening is projected to continue somewhat going forward.
  • Inflation: Headline inflation stalled in May after jumping to 1.4% Y/Y in April. Headline CPI is seen staying below 2% in the medium term.
  • Monetary Policy: The economic backdrop leaves the SNB again on the fence between a 25bps cut and a rate hold in on June 20th, in the follow-up meeting from its surprise 25bp rate cut in March. A change in its FX communications is not to be expected yet.
  • Foreign Exchange: The Swiss Franc has seen multi-year record depreciation against the Euro during the first 5 months of 2024, after interest rate cut expectations in the Eurozone continuously got priced further out amid sticky inflation in the bloc. This has partially reversed recently.
  • Medium-Term Outlook: From a broader perspective, the Swiss economy seems to have maintained stability but lacks strong momentum. Analyst forecasts for 2025 GDP growth have remained largely unchanged recently.


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