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- TD anticipates the Fed "will indeed accelerate tapering to give themselves the flexibility to hike as soon as Mar 2022."
- An earlier end to QE and potential faster hikes should move long end real rates higher. There is also a supply effect of tapering as markets will need to absorb more TIPS supply (net supply at $52bn in 2022 vs. -$20bn in 2021), and we go short 10y real rates to position for faster tapering.
- We don't believe the market's low terminal rate pricing (which assumes a policy mistake) and expect real rate term premium to rise. The trade carries negatively at -7.2bp to Jan 1, 2022.