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Taiwan Equities Remain Vulnerable As US Growth Stocks Remain In ‘Bear’ Market

EMERGING MARKETS
  • We saw last year that the significant deceleration in the Chinese economic activity did not impact Taiwan equities, which led to a sharp divergence between the Hang Seng Index and the TWSE index.
  • However, the surge in risk-off sentiment this year amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and stagflation fears have been weighing on risky assets, particularly tech equities with US mega cap growth stocks down over 30% since their November highs.
  • Due to its heavy semi-conductor component, Taiwanese equities have been trading like US-tech equities and therefore have historically been very sensitive to the liquidity dynamics and risk-off environments.
  • The chart shows that the peak in US growth stocks in November 2021 was shortly followed by a peak in Taiwanese equities a few weeks later.
  • TWSE is down over 15% since its all-time high reached in early January.
  • ST support to watch on the downside stands at 15,102, followed by 14,763, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 8,523 – 18,620 range.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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