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Taking their cue from the US data

EGB SUMMARY

EGBs and Bund are better bid this afternoon.

  • With most investors looking at the ECB meeting tomorrow, Europe took its cur from the US CPI release.
  • In a nutshell, US Core +0.1015% M/M unrounded, so was firmly bottom of 0.1-0.3% expected range and 0.2% median. Mainly due to drop in core goods prices, -0.2% M/M, lowest since May 2020. Core services were +0.2%, highest since Nov 2020.
  • Meaning lower rates, lower yield, cheaper money., In turn, keeping Govies and Equities better bid this afternoon.
  • German curve trades bull flatter, just on the margin, nothing big.
  • Peripheral spreads are mostly flat to a touch wider against the German 10yr.
  • The standout today, is Greece at 4.5bps tighter.
  • Looking ahead, there is no data or speakers left, BUT with focus on yields, some attention on the US $38bn 10yr Auction later today.
  • Bund futures are up 0.12 today at 171.35
  • BTP futures are up 0.15 today at 148.91
  • OAT futures are up 0.03 today at 162.04.

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