Taoiseach (PM) Leo Varadkar confirms to.....>

IRELAND: Taoiseach (PM) Leo Varadkar confirms to Cabinet that he will not seek a

December 2019 general election.

- Rumours that the Irish PM could call a vote in December to take advantage of

the delay to Brexit. However, it appears Varadkar has shifted against this

option, with May 2020 the preferred date.

- All three polls carried out in October have shown Varadkar's Fine Gael (FG)

party leading the main opposition Fianna Fail (FF). Range of leads though, with

FG up by between 1 and 8 percentage points on FF.

- FG does not currently hold a majority in the Dail Eireann, relying on FF in a

confidence and supply agreement that was intended to last until end-2018, but

has been extended through the course of Brexit negotiations. 

- FG could be well positioned going into a 2020 election regarding Brexit.

Should Conservatives win a majority in the UK and leave the EU with a deal

Varadkar can claim his gov't mitigated impact of Brexit. If not, and there is a

2nd ref resulting in UK remaining, he can claim his patient stance enabled time

for UK to change its decision.