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Tapestry (TPR; Baa2/BBB; double Neg) Capri goes bid as TPR files opposition

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Target {CPRI US Equity} closed +7.4% and is one of the biggest session moves we've seen since the FTC block.
  • Reminder take-out price from TPR is $57. We see probability of beating the FTC moving from 35% to 42%.
  • We are not endorsing €TPR 27/31 mids - they have been pricing more bullish (31s ~55%, 27s ~62%). Reminder carry (likely) no longer protects investors from total return losses on a 101 call for when we see this being resolved (late Sept-late Feb).
  • Not a bad close for TPR either (+1.9%) as it's new line of Coach handbags got a mention in Macy's earnings call for selling well.

Trigger for yesterday moves here
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