Tax Day Doesn't Resolve X-Date Ambiguity (1/2)

US April tax collection data so far are basically in the middle-to-low end of expectations, which maintains ambiguity over whether an "x-date" for Treasury will arrive in early June or later.

• Yesterday's daily Treasury statement showed a $108.5B increase in the TGA cash pile on April 18 (the tax deadline), with the relevant lines for individual and corporate tax collection reaching a combined $104.6B.
• The 2-day total is $158.6B, with the TGA up $117B - now up $166B since bottoming on April 12.
• Collection so far is seen on the light side of expectations. The TGA size of $242.5B is the highest in a month, but it's still unclear whether the April tax haul will be enough toward off an x-date in early June.
• There's still more data to come, including today's release (for April 20th's collections, which is seen as crucial by some analysts but not others), though the prior two days had been seen as the major driver of collections.
• There are timing issues at play (including potential weekend payments, use of checks vs faster electronic payments, etc) but we'll have a clearer view in a week, by which time the vast majority of April tax collections will be in.
• The general consensus among analysts is that the incoming data points to risks of an x-date earlier than the widely expected late Jul/early Aug timeline, but doesn't alter the base case.