Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling and seat forecasts ahead of the 14 October general election show that a three-party coalition involving the main opposition centre-right Nationals, libertarian ACT, and populist New Zealand First (NZF) would hold a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives if reflected in the final vote. Of the four set of seat projections released in September, three showed that the NAT-ACT-NZF coalition would hold a majority, while one showed the Nationals and ACT crossing the 61-seat threshold without needing NZF support (see chart below).
- Earlier this week, Nationals leader Christopher Luxon confirmed that his party would be willing to form a gov't with NZF. Under the leadership of former Deputy PM Winston Peters, NZF has sat in gov't on two separate occasions, once as part of a Nationals-led administration and once during the first term of former Labour PM Jacinda Ardern.
- The implications of NZF being required to form a majority govt or not could prove significant for New Zealand's fiscal outlook and tax policies. A two-party Nationals-ACT gov't would be more likely to enact significanttax cuts totalling NZD14.6bn(USD8.7bn), including NZD2bn in income tax relief each year, paid for by controversial new taxes on offshore gambling companies and foreign homebuyers.
- However, Peters has stated that “To the best of my efforts, I can’t work out how the fiscals work, and nor can any economist,” and said that he would need to see detailed costings before backing a Nationals-led gov't.
Chart 1. New Zealand General Election Seat Forecasts
Source: Roy Morgan, Talbot Mills, Freshwater Strategy, Reid Research, Guardian Essential, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, Verian, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.