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TD: 1mn Payroll Gains In July

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

TD sees an above-consensus "surge" in payrolls in July's nonfarms report: +1mn.

  • This is despite a deceleration (pre-seas adj) in the Homebase data, as TD sees both gov't (fewer than usual end of school year layoffs) and private sector jobs higher on a seas adj basis.
  • TD sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% (in line with consensus). They estimate a much higher 8.6% level in unemployment vs the 5.9% seen in June 2021 "after adjusting for a mostly-COVID-related decline in the participation rate and lingering classification issues".
  • They see avg hourly earnings up 0.3% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y.

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