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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
TD forecasts core CPI of 0.19% M/M in September, with headline of 0.14%, both notably below consensus. "Lingering supply chain issues, most importantly for autos but for other goods as well, suggest a bit more strength in the data for the next few months than we were assuming previously."
- Indeed, they raised their US inflation forecasts in a note last Friday, pointing to a core CPI print of 4.5% Y/Y by end-2021 (up from 4.1% in the previous forecast), rising further to 4.8% by Feb 2022. In the near-term, that means a reacceleration in core CPI M/M to 0.3% in each of Oct-Dec.
- This is also in part due to more strength in rents, but offset by more "transitory weakness" in used vehicle prices in 2022 after additional strength in 2021.
- But TD's overall view is that they don't expect "stagflation", with "modest inflation" alongside moderation in growth and "relatively low" unemployment. And they see core CPI subsiding to 2.3% by end-2022 (albeit that's above their previous forecast of 2.1%).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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