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TD: Largely Balanced Risks To June CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

TD estimates that core prices rose by 0.51% M/M in June, in line with consensus, but with "largely balanced risks".

  • Their analysts see shelter prices as likely having maintained momentum, but they think airfares retreated following the double-digit M/M rises in March/Apr/May.
  • Used vehicle prices likely contributed to inflation despite the Manheim price index drop.
  • With gasoline prices accelerating to an 11% M/M pace (vs 4% in May), their headline expectation of +1.2% M/M is one-tenth above expectations.
  • Overall that means an 8.9% Y/Y gain for headline prices, up 0.3pp from May; but core is set to decelerate by 0.3pp to 5.7% Y/Y.
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