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TD Notably Below Core CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • TD forecast core CPI at 0.14% M/M, with core goods likely a “notable drag”, pushing the 3-month annualized rate to 2.7% from 3.4%.
  • Their assumption for used cars drives a lot of the move, eyeing -3.5% M/M.
  • On services, they expect “largely unchanged” inflation from the housing components, “though we don't discard a large swing to the downside in rents given it has failed to move lower in recent reports.”
  • “In addition, we look for airfares inflation to shift to positive in Dec, while lodging away from home inflation likely stayed in negative territory for a third consecutive month. All in, these moves should translate into a supercore CPI inflation that slows down by a tenth to 0.3% m/m in December.”
  • “We expect core inflation to stay in a 0.2%-0.3% m/m range in 24Q1, partly reflecting less drag from the core goods segment and stickier core services ex-housing inflation.”
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