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TD on NBP and PLN

POLAND
  • TD thinks that the NBP will attempt to take a pause at the September meeting and keep rates on hold at 6.50%, with a message that they're entering wait-and-see mode.
  • This is an off-consensus call as the markets continue to price in one more 50bps hike in September.
  • The biggest risk to TD call for unchanged rates is zloty weakness. If zloty weakens meaningfully past 4.80, this could be enough to sway the NBP to nonetheless hike the base rate to avoid increasing inflation through the means of FX pass-through.
  • Even if TD call for unchanged rates at the September meeting materialises, there is still a substantial risk that later in the year the zloty weakens notably above 4.80 and starts to approach 4.90.
  • In that case, zloty weakness could encourage the NBP to deliver another hike.
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