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TD: Rent Prices Won't Accelerate...But Won't Cool Either

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

TD forecasts M/M core and headline readings of 0.36% / 0.37% respectively in January's reading, "so we see more risk of 0.3%/0.3% than 0.5%/0.5%".

  • That's on the softer side of expectations, with "strength in used vehicles...probably partly offset by weakness in hotels and airfares."
  • They see +0.44% OER / +0.42% primary rents, in line with recent readings. While they don't see much slowing in rent prices, they also "don't expect much more acceleration" going forward either.
  • TD also notes that the updated CPI weightings and seasonal factors "will not affect history" [including revised SA M/M readings for the past 5 years, though NSA to be unch] "but could lead to slightly different trends going forward".
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