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TD Securities: Consideration for active gilt sales from August

BOE
  • Expect 25bp hike in February with gilt reinvestment to end.
  • Inflation forecast “for 2022 as a whole is likely to be revised up nearly 1ppt, with inflation well above target through 2023 as well. The risks are skewed slightly to the upside for Years 2-3 inflation, with a higher yield curve weighing slightly, but better economic momentum in 2023 offsetting to the upside.”
  • “In November, the MPC noted that the rise to 1% implied inflation falling below target toward the end of the forecast horizon. The question is whether recent developments offset this—in other words, can the MPC do anything about current high inflation rates, or does the ongoing erosion of real income push risks further to the downside further into the projection horizon?”
  • “We expect subsequent hikes in May and August this year, triggering the consideration of active Gilt sales from August.”
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