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TD Securities: Now expects 25bp hikes in Feb22, May22 and Aug22

BOE
  • “The Bank of England's MPC put more weight on past economic data than future Omicron concerns.”
  • “With the MPC's (possibly overly-) confident discounting of Omicron effects on the outlook, it's clear that they've set themselves on a path to continue hiking rates through 2022. We now expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate three times next year, in February, May, and August [previously 15bp in Feb/Mar, 25bp in Aug and 25bp in Nov]. This means that the £25bn Gilt redemption is not reinvested in March, and that the MPC will be in a position to consider active Gilt sales (QT) following its August 2022 meeting, about 6 months earlier than we'd previously expected.
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