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TD Securities view following the MPC meeting

BOE

TD Securities – Continue to see Nov QE but no NIRP in base case

  • Continue to see more QE in November but notes will be following Governor Bailey's two speeches next week and note that "markets will be watching especially closely now for any potential shift in his view on negative rates".
  • On NIRP TD argue that "the reaction was overdone as the BoE is merely continuing with its widely-publicised plans to review its toolkit. We don't see negative rates in our base case outlook, and particularly not as soon as November, short of another full-blown national lockdown"
  • TD also notes that "The statement was in fact more upbeat than we had expected, reflecting a slightly stronger rebound into Q3, and no mention of the risks to growth into 2021, which is where some MPC members had expressed a lot more concern."
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