TD Securities Weigh Up Recent Asian FX Performance Vs. The USD

Tuesday saw TD Securities note that "the DXY has fallen by close to 9%
since its high on 20 Mar, ADXY is up around 3.6%. Asian FX sensitivity to
USD gyrations has increased as USD depreciation has gathered pace;
SGD, IDR & KRW react most. Asian FX would have strengthened more
had it not been for central bank intervention & only a ltd resumption of
portfolio inflows, though this has been countered by improving current a/c
positions. We calculate the 3m beta of Asian FX to moves in the DXY &
estimate the FX move that would be exp. based on this beta, since the
DXY peaked on Mar 20. We compare this with the actual move in Asian
FX vs. USD over the same period. We find that SGD, KRW & CNY have
largely moved in line with their betas. IDR & TWD stand out as currencies
appreciating far more than would be exp. In contrast INR has appreciated
by far less than would be anticipated. As such we think IDR & TWD will
struggle to strengthen further in the near term, while we see scope for
INR to find further support, with RBI intervention likely to lessen."