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TD saw a noticeably less dovish tone at the June FOMC than in the March and April meetings, with the dot plot hawkishness reinforced by Powell starting the process of preparing markets for QE tapering.
- On rate hikes, "the Fed's reaction function appears to be less dovish than we thought previously".
- Expect officials to start providing some indication of perceived "progress" in upcoming FOMC statements, starting in July, with the tone on relative improvement to become more positive over the coming meetings.
- Future action: TD has brought forward its tightening forecasts: now see taper formally announced in Dec 2021 (vs Mar 2022 previously), with rate liftoff in Dec 2023 (was Sep 2024).