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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: HUF Storms Ahead

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF has sold off sharply this week and remains under pressure. The break lower has resulted in a move through the November, December 2020 lows and the February lows. The cross has also tested the 350.00 handle. Potential remains for an extension lower with the focus on 347.22, Aug 19 2020 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 353.15, Dec 14, 2020 low and yesterday's key breakout level.
  • The USDHUF sell-off this week continues to accelerate. The pair has cleared key support at 289.37 and 289.36, the Dec 17 and Jan 6 lows respectively. Note the Aug 2020 low of 289.15 has also been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish cycle and signals scope for weakness towards 283.24, the Jun 28, 2019 low.
  • EURPLN maintains a bearish outlook but continues to trade within its recent range. Support at 4.5203, Apr 12 low and just above 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally, has been probed but continues to provide support. A clear break lower would suggest scope for a deeper sell-off to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low. For bulls, clearance of 4.5931, Apr 28 high is needed to strengthen a bullish case. This would open 4.6088, Apr 5 high, and beyond.
  • USDZAR remains weak following the recent break to fresh trend lows. The recent move through support at 14.1484, Apr 29 low opens 13.6235, the 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing. Key resistance has been defined at 14.5434, May 4 high. Initial resistance is at 14.2422, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY technical conditions remain bullish despite the current pullback. Last week's break of resistance at 8.4851, Apr 26 high reinforces the bullish theme. The focus is on 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 8.2259, May 7 low.
  • USDRUB outlook remains bearish following the recent move lower and the reversal from the Apr 7 high. The focus is on 73.00 and 72.5385, Mar 16 low. Resistance is at 74.6670, the May 12 high.
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