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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Pushes Higher

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF maintains a short-term bullish tone and is holding onto gains following the recent climb from 356.27, Apr 12 low. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA and this opens 364.27, 61.8% of the sell-off between Mar 18 and Apr 12. Support is seen at 360.13, Apr 19 low.
  • Key support in EURPLN is unchanged at 4.5203, Apr 12 low. This level coincides with 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally.
    • A clear breach of this support would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low.
    • Initial resistance is 4.5751, Apr 8 high ahead of 4.6088, Apr 5 high.
  • USDZAR is consolidating. A bearish theme remains intact though, following last week's break lower and breach of key support at 14.3966, Feb 24 low.
    • The move lower confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started Apr 6, 2020.
    • The pair is trading within a broad bear channel, drawn off the Apr 24, 2020 high. An attempted break in March failed to deliver a bullish reversal, reinforcing bearish trend conditions.
    • The focus is on 14.0633, the 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing.
    • Initial resistance is unchanged at 14.3966.
  • USDTRY is firmer and maintains a bullish theme. The focus is on the key resistance at 8.4704, Mar 22 high. A break of this hurdle would open 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial support is also unchanged at 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • Key directional parameters in USDRUB are unchanged at:
    • 78.0406 resistance, Apr 7 high. This level also marks the bull trigger.
    • Key support has been defined at 75.2275, Mar 31 low.
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