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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Downtrend Resumes

EMERGING MARKETS
  • USDZAR is trading lower and has cleared key support at 14.3966, Feb 24 low.
    • The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that started Apr 6, 2020.
    • The pair is also trading within a broad bear channel. An attempted break in March failed to deliver a bullish reversal.
    • The focus is on 14.0633, 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing.
    • Initial resistance is at 14.3966.


  • EURHUF traded higher Tuesday however despite these gains, the cross remains heavy.
    • Price has recently cleared a trendline support drawn off the Jul 31, 2020 low.
    • Furthermore, 360.35, 61.8% of the rally between Feb 2 and Mar 18 has been breached as has 358.25, the 76.4% level.
    • This highlights potential for a move towards 354.87, Feb 2 low.
    • Initial resistance to watch is 360.17, Apr 8 high. The 360.50, 100D SMA and 365, 50D SMA also highlight potential resistance levels.
  • EURPLN also rallied Tuesday.
    • Monday's low of 4.5203 marks a key support and coincides with 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally.
    • A clear breach of this support would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and would open 4.4709, Feb 10 low.
    • Initial resistance is 4.5751, Apr 8 high ahead of 4.6088, Apr 5 high.
  • USDTRY is trading lower however a bullish theme remains intact. Attention is on key resistance at 8.4704, Mar 22 high. A break of this hurdle would open 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low.
  • USDRUB is trading in an extremely volatile manner. Key directional parameters have been defined as a result of recent price activity. Key resistance is at 78.0406, Apr 7 high. This level also marks the bull trigger. Key support has been defined at 75.2275, Mar 31 low.

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