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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Resumes Its Downtrend

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF maintains a weaker tone following last week's sell-off. A key resistance has been defined at 364.4, Apr 23 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish focus. Initial resistance is seen at 360.78, May 4 high. For bears, the continued move lower opens support at 356.27, Apr 12 low.
  • EURPLN is firmer but remains within its recent range. Attention is on resistance at 4.5931, Apr 28 high. While this level remains intact, a bearish theme dominates with key support and the bear trigger at 4.5203, Apr 12 low and just above 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally. A clear break of the support would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low. For bulls, clearance of 4.5931 is needed to strengthen a bullish case. This would instead open 4.6088, Apr 5 high, and beyond.
  • The USDZAR downtrend has resumed and the recent bear flag formation confirmed. The move through support at 14.1484, Apr 29 low paves the way for a move towards 13.6235, the 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing. Key resistance has been defined at 14.5434, May 4 high. Initial resistance is at 14.3662, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY technical conditions remain bullish. The pair traded to a fresh high of 8.4851 on Apr 26. Despite the pullback that followed, the needle still points north. Fresh gains would expose 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial firm support is 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • USDRUB outlook remains bearish following last week's resumption of the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 73.00 and 72.5385, Mar 16 low. Resistance is at 75.3590, the May 4 high.
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