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Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - USD bounce extends

  • In the equity space, the trend in the E-Mini S&P contract remains bullish with the focus on 3819.10, 1.764 projection of Sep 24 - Oct 12 rally from Oct 30 low. A break would open 3900.00 further out.
  • A bearish risk still prevails in the FI space despite a recovery off recent low.
    • Treasuries (H1) breached support at 136-26+, Nov 11 low to resume the downtrend that started August 2020. The break exposes 136.21+, 61.8% of the Mar - Aug rally (cont).
    • Bunds (H1) focus is on support at 177.01, Dec 23 low. A break would trigger deeper losses.
    • Gilts (H1) traded through 134.47 yesterday. This has opened 134.01, Dec 24 low and a key support.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to pull away from highs earlier this week and has pressured the 50-day EMA at 1879.9. A deeper pullback would open $1855.4, the Dec 21 low. The move lower is still considered a correction. Oil contracts remain bullish. Brent (H1) has potential for $55.14 next, the 1.382 projection of the Nov 13 - 26 rally from Dec 2 low. WTI (G1) targets $52.11, 1.00 projection of Apr - Aug rally from the Nov 2 low.
  • In FX , the USD remains weak from a trend perspective although it has found some support again this morning. The EURUSD upside objective remains 1.2380, 2.00 projection of the Nov 4 - 9 rally from the Nov 11 low. Support lies at 1.2210/09, the 20-day EMA and Dec 31 low and the recent pullback is considered a correction. USDJPY targets 102.02, Mar 10 low following this week's fresh low prints. For now though, and with the pair correcting, attention is on a key resistance at 104.45, the bear channel top drawn off the Mar 24 high.

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