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BLOCK, Late 2Y


Approaching The 200-DMA


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  • The short-term EURHUF outlook is bullish. The strong recovery last week sets the scene for a move to 357.17 and 360.02, 50% and 61.8% retracements of the downleg between Mar 18 - Jun 10. Support to watch is at 349.85, Jun 15 low.
  • Last week's gains in EURPLN resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. A climb would open 4.5868, 61.8% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg and 4.5931, Apr 28 high. Support is at 4.4872, Jun 14 low.
  • USDZAR is holding onto last week's gains and the rally that started Jun 7, remains intact. Recent developments have reinforced a bullish theme.
    • A key bear channel resistance drawn off the Apr 24 2020 high has been breached.
    • Price has also traded through the 50-day EMA.
    • The channel has been cleared before. However if a strong rally can be maintained, this would signal a key reversal of the entire downtrend that started early Apr 2020.
    • The focus is on 14.5434 next, May 4 high.
    • Initial support is seen at 13.9109, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY recovered last week from support at the 50-day EMA. The EMA is considered a key support area and the bounce from it is a bullish development. Attention is on 8.8008, Jun 2 high and the bull trigger where a break would open 8.9657, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - Mar 9 - Mar 19 price swing. Key support is at 8.2860, Jun 11 low.
  • USDRUB maintains a bearish tone following the recent break of 72.5385, Mar 16 low and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting the fact that the path of least resistance remains down. The recent break lower opens 71.0838, 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2020 rally. Resistance is at 73.6434, the 50-day EMA.