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TECHS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Remains Vulnerable

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF traded higher Friday. Recent short-term gains have placed a bearish theme on hold. The recovery last week defined a key short-term support at 356.27, Apr 12 low where a break is required to reinstate bearish pressure. The 50-day EMA has been tested, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 363.87, Mar 31 high.
  • 4.5203, Apr 12 low in EURPLN is a key support and coincides with 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally.
    • A clear breach of this support would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and would open 4.4709, Feb 10 low.
    • Initial resistance is 4.5751, Apr 8 high ahead of 4.6088, Apr 5 high.
  • USDZAR is trading closer to recent lows and maintains a bearish theme following last week's break lower and breach of key support at 14.3966, Feb 24 low.
    • The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that started Apr 6, 2020.
    • USDZAR is trading within a broad bear channel. An attempted break in March failed to deliver a bullish reversal. This reinforces underlying bearish trend conditions.
    • The focus is on 14.0633, the 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing.
    • Initial resistance is at 14.3966.
  • USDTRY maintains a bullish theme. Attention is on the key resistance at 8.4704, Mar 22 high. A break of this hurdle would open 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance. Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial support lies at 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • USDRUB key directional parameters have been defined at:
    • 78.0406 as resistance, Apr 7 high. This level also marks the bull trigger.
    • Key support has been defined at 75.2275, Mar 31 low.
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