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Bullish Outlook


Trend Needle Still Points South


US-ASEAN Summit Concludes


Risk-On Sentiment Dominates

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  • In the equity space, E-mini S&P remain vulnerable following last week's selling pressure from 3978.50, Mar 18 high. The support to watch today is 3875.00, Mar 19 low. A break would confirm a breach of the 20-day EMA and reinforce short-term bearish conditions.
  • In the FX space:
    • EURUSD is weaker this morning and the risk remains skewed to the downside. The key directional triggers this week are:
      • Key support and bear trigger at 1.1836, Mar 9 low
      • Resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high
    • USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance.
      • Watch support at 108.34 Mar 10 low.
    • GBPUSD is weaker this morning. The pair has cleared 1.3779, Mar 5 low and the bear trigger. Note this also confirms a breach of the 50-day EMA and a bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. The focus is on 1.3700 and below.
  • On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains in place following the recovery that started Mar 8. The focus is on $1781.4, the 50-day EMA. Support is at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. Oil contracts remain vulnerable. The bear trigger in Brent (K1) is $61.45, Mar 18 low. In WTI (K1), it is at $58.28, also the Mar 18 low.
  • In the FI space:
    • Bunds (M1) are firmer this morning and approaching resistance. The key directional triggers are:
      • 170.52, Mar 18 low
      • 172.20, Mar 11 high and the bull trigger.
    • Gilts (M1) are trading higher too ahead of resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The bear trigger remains 126.79, Mar 18 low.
    • Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 132-09, Mar 17 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-3805 |

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