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TEL Miss On Q4 OIBDA, Beats On FCF, FY24 Guidance Compatible With Goals

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  • Q4 looks like a slight beat on Q4 Rev (EUR 10.15bn vs. consensus EUR 10.09) but a miss on Q4 OIBDA (EUR 1.8bn vs. consensus EUR 2bn) though Spanish organic OIBDA appears to have stabilised at +0.1% YoY on the back of service revenue improvements. Q4 FCF was ~10% ahead of consensus at EUR 1.56bn).
  • FY results broadly in line with target (Rev +3.7% vs. ~4% target, OIBDA +3.1% vs. ~3% target, FCF EUR 4.3bn vs. EUR ~4bn target) though FY EPS posted a loss on the back of impairments at -0.20. Leverage slightly higher at 2.6x vs. 2.5x at Q3.
  • 2024 targets guide for a slower year but look broadly in line with MT Guidance to 2026 (Rev ~+1% vs. MT guidance of ~1% CAGR, EBITDA +1-2% vs. MT guidance ~2% CAGR, CapEx/Sales up to 13% vs. <12% CAGR).
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