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Telenor (Baa1/A-) Q1 Results Broadly In Line; Org Service Rev Strong; FY Outlook Confirmed

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  • Q1 revenue slightly soft, 1.2% behind consensus, with 2% org growth (with strong +6% org growth for service revenues) while EBITDA was in line (-0.3% behind consensus) at +7% YoY. (with +8% for the Nordic market).
  • Credit metrics look steady; leverage of 2.2x is flat to Q4. Total FCF was 4.5% lower YoY though ongoing disposals make YoY comparison difficult (this year saw the sale of Telenor Satellite while last year Telenor sold fibre infrastructure). FCF Before M&A was +35% since Q122 (Q123 was unusually low). Capex to Sales of 15.7% is down from 18.4% in Q123.
  • FY24 guidance confirmed. EUR spreads muted thus far.
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  • Q1 revenue slightly soft, 1.2% behind consensus, with 2% org growth (with strong +6% org growth for service revenues) while EBITDA was in line (-0.3% behind consensus) at +7% YoY. (with +8% for the Nordic market).
  • Credit metrics look steady; leverage of 2.2x is flat to Q4. Total FCF was 4.5% lower YoY though ongoing disposals make YoY comparison difficult (this year saw the sale of Telenor Satellite while last year Telenor sold fibre infrastructure). FCF Before M&A was +35% since Q122 (Q123 was unusually low). Capex to Sales of 15.7% is down from 18.4% in Q123.
  • FY24 guidance confirmed. EUR spreads muted thus far.