Russia Keeps Upping Ante In Ukraine Crisis, Last-Ditch Diplomacy Resumes

The risk of further escalation in eastern Ukraine remained elevated over the weekend as the intensified exchange of fire in the Donbas continued, while unsubstantiated reports of alleged Ukrainian provocations did the rounds in Russian-speaking mediasphere (with most quickly discredited by Western reporters/OSINT social media accounts). Russia's Investigative Committee opened a probe into an alleged launch of rockets from Ukraine into the Rostov region in Russia. These developments kept fuelling fears of a "false flag" scenario, although the general outlook for the conflict remained highly uncertain.

• In a further aggravation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) pointed to a "dramatic increase in kinetic activity along the contact line" and said they recorded 1,500 violations of ceasefire in a single day. A group of Ukrainian MPs and Western journalists accompanying Interior Minister Monastyrsky on a visit to the Donbas came under mortar fire, while two Ukrainian soldiers were killed in shelling by pro-Russian rebels.
• The weekend brought no pause to Russia's muscle-flexing, with Moscow conducting strategic nuclear drills on Saturday and showing no intention of pulling back troops from Ukraine's borders. Belarus' Defence Ministry announced that Russian troops will remain in the country despite the completion of joint exercise "Allied Resolve-2022," owing to the tense situation in the Donbas. Moscow and Minsk had previously insisted that all Russian troops will leave Belarus once the drill runs its course on Sunday.
• Diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions and restore ceasefire continued. French President Macron and Russian President Putin agreed in a phone call to prepare a meeting of the trilateral contact group of stakeholders in the Donbas conflict to be held within hours with the aim of securing a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. They also agreed to resume security talks in different formats/levels in the coming days to achieve a diplomatic solution of the ongoing crisis.