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Terminal Rate Climb Pauses With Logan (’23 voter)

FED
  • Fed terminal rate pricing pauses with Dallas Fed Logan’s (’23 voter) prepared remarks after a significant increase post-CPI, currently at 5.27% for a 7bp increase on the day, with potentially more reaction in upcoming Q&A if it touches upon the data.
  • Prepared before today’s CPI release, “I anticipate we will need to continue gradually raising the fed funds rate until we see convincing evidence that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target in a sustainable and timely way”.
  • “We shouldn't lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates”, citing January payrolls coming in twice as high as expected making it hard to have confidence in any outlook.
  • If necessary “We must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated”. “And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it.”
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