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Tesco Raises Profit Guidance; Key '25 Bond Has Lost Ground To Euro Peers

CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR

Tesco (TSCO LN) sales figures out this morning and look marginally better than expectations (contrast with SBRY yesterday) but little consensus data out there.


  1. Total sales +6.4% but the key Xmas season decelerated (growth +6.0% but SBRY did mention exceptional prior year). UK & RoI were the highlights (+7.5% and +7.3%) with central Europe lower (-0.3%).
  2. Market share higher in both UK and RoI (+15bps and +73bps) with good transfer from premium retailers (apparently).
  3. Outlook: retail adj operating profit guidance raised to c.GBP2.75bn (from GBP2.6-2.7bn range).
The equity has only tracked the UKX higher recently but TSCOLN credit lines have broadly tightened over the last month (OAS basis). However, the most liquid '25 line (ZS302473 Corp) has moved out significantly relative to peers since Oct-23 and now only trades at a meaningful discount to ELOFR (Auchan in France)... see image.



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